Precision public-health intervention for care coordination: a real-world study.

BACKGROUND: Health emergencies disproportionally affect vulnerable populations. Digital tools can help primary care providers find, and reach, the right patients. AIM: To evaluate whether digital interventions delivered directly to GPs' clinical software were more effective at promoting primary care appointments during the COVID-19 pandemic than interventions delivered by post. DESIGN AND SETTING: Real-world, non-randomised, interventional study involving GP practices in all Australian states. METHOD: Intervention material was developed to promote care coordination for vulnerable older veterans during the COVID-19 pandemic, and sent to GPs either digitally to the clinical practice software system or in the post. The intervention material included patient-specific information sent to GPs to support care coordination, and education material sent via post to veterans identified in the administrative claims database. To evaluate the impact of intervention delivery modalities on outcomes, the time to first appointment with the primary GP was measured; a Cox proportional hazards model was used, adjusting for differences and accounting for pre-intervention appointment numbers. RESULTS: The intervention took place in April 2020, during the first weeks of COVID-19 social distancing restrictions in Australia. GPs received digital messaging for 51 052 veterans and postal messaging for 26 859 veterans. The digital group was associated with earlier appointments (adjusted hazard ratio 1.38 [1.34 to 1.41]). CONCLUSION: Data-driven digital solutions can promote care coordination at scale during national emergencies, opening up new perspectives for precision public-health initiatives.

Transcriptomics and RNA-Based Therapeutics as Potential Approaches to Manage SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus family member that appeared in China in December 2019 and caused the disease called COVID-19, which was declared a pandemic in 2020 by the World Health Organization. In recent months, great efforts have been made in the field of basic and clinical research to understand the biology and infection processes of SARS-CoV-2. In particular, transcriptome analysis has contributed to generating new knowledge of the viral sequences and intracellular signaling pathways that regulate the infection and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2, generating new information about its biology. Furthermore, transcriptomics approaches including spatial transcriptomics, single-cell transcriptomics and direct RNA sequencing have been used for clinical applications in monitoring, detection, diagnosis, and treatment to generate new clinical predictive models for SARS-CoV-2. Consequently, RNA-based therapeutics and their relationship with SARS-CoV-2 have emerged as promising strategies to battle the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic with the assistance of novel approaches such as CRISPR-CAS, ASOs, and siRNA systems. Lastly, we discuss the importance of precision public health in the management of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 and establish that the fusion of transcriptomics, RNA-based therapeutics, and precision public health will allow a linkage for developing health systems that facilitate the acquisition of relevant clinical strategies for rapid decision making to assist in the management and treatment of the SARS-CoV-2-infected population to combat this global public health problem.

Transforming Rapid Diagnostic Tests for Precision Public Health: Open Guidelines for Manufacturers and Users

Background: Precision public health (PPH) can maximize impact by targeting surveillance and interventions by temporal, spatial, and epidemiological characteristics. Although rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have enabled ubiquitous point-of-care testing in low-resource settings, their impact has been less than anticipated, owing in part to lack of features to streamline data capture and analysis. Objective: We aimed to transform the RDT into a tool for PPH by defining information and data axioms and an information utilization index (IUI);identifying design features to maximize the IUI;and producing open guidelines (OGs) for modular RDT features that enable links with digital health tools to create an RDT-OG system. Methods: We reviewed published papers and conducted a survey with experts or users of RDTs in the sectors of technology, manufacturing, and deployment to define features and axioms for information utilization. We developed an IUI, ranging from 0% to 100%, and calculated this index for 33 World Health Organization–prequalified RDTs. RDT-OG specifications were developed to maximize the IUI;the feasibility and specifications were assessed through developing malaria and COVID-19 RDTs based on OGs for use in Kenya and Indonesia. Results: The survey respondents (n=33) included 16 researchers, 7 technologists, 3 manufacturers, 2 doctors or nurses, and 5 other users. They were most concerned about the proper use of RDTs (30/33, 91%), their interpretation (28/33, 85%), and reliability (26/33, 79%), and were confident that smartphone-based RDT readers could address some reliability concerns (28/33, 85%), and that readers were more important for complex or multiplex RDTs (33/33, 100%). The IUI of prequalified RDTs ranged from 13% to 75% (median 33%). In contrast, the IUI for an RDT-OG prototype was 91%. The RDT open guideline system that was developed was shown to be feasible by (1) creating a reference RDT-OG prototype;(2) implementing its features and capabilities on a smartphone RDT reader, cloud information system, and Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources;and (3) analyzing the potential public health impact of RDT-OG integration with laboratory, surveillance, and vital statistics systems. Conclusions: Policy makers and manufacturers can define, adopt, and synergize with RDT-OGs and digital health initiatives. The RDT-OG approach could enable real-time diagnostic and epidemiological monitoring with adaptive interventions to facilitate control or elimination of current and emerging diseases through PPH.

COVID-19 GPH: tracking the contribution of genomics and precision health to the COVID-19 pandemic response.

The scientific response to the COVID-19 pandemic has produced an abundance of publications, including peer-reviewed articles and preprints, across a wide array of disciplines, from microbiology to medicine and social sciences. Genomics and precision health (GPH) technologies have had a particularly prominent role in medical and public health investigations and response; however, these domains are not simply defined and it is difficult to search for relevant information using traditional strategies. To quantify and track the ongoing contributions of GPH to the COVID-19 response, the Office of Genomics and Precision Public Health at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention created the COVID-19 Genomics and Precision Health database (COVID-19 GPH), an open access knowledge management system and publications database that is continuously updated through machine learning and manual curation. As of February 11, 2022, COVID-GPH contained 31,597 articles, mostly on pathogen and human genomics (72%). The database also includes articles describing applications of machine learning and artificial intelligence to the investigation and control of COVID-19 (28%). COVID-GPH represents about 10% (22983/221241) of the literature on COVID-19 on PubMed. This unique knowledge management database makes it easier to explore, describe, and track how the pandemic response is accelerating the applications of genomics and precision health technologies. COVID-19 GPH can be freely accessed via https://phgkb.cdc.gov/PHGKB/coVInfoStartPage.action .

Critical Periods, Critical Time Points and Day-of-the-Week Effects in COVID-19 Surveillance Data: An Example in Middlesex County, Massachusetts, USA.

Critical temporal changes such as weekly fluctuations in surveillance systems often reflect changes in laboratory testing capacity, access to testing or healthcare facilities, or testing preferences. Many studies have noted but few have described day-of-the-week (DoW) effects in SARS-CoV-2 surveillance over the major waves of the novel coronavirus 2019 pandemic (COVID-19). We examined DoW effects by non-pharmaceutical intervention phases adjusting for wave-specific signatures using the John Hopkins University's (JHU's) Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) COVID-19 data repository from 2 March 2020 through 7 November 2021 in Middlesex County, Massachusetts, USA. We cross-referenced JHU's data with Massachusetts Department of Public Health (MDPH) COVID-19 records to reconcile inconsistent reporting. We created a calendar of statewide non-pharmaceutical intervention phases and defined the critical periods and timepoints of outbreak signatures for reported tests, cases, and deaths using Kolmogorov-Zurbenko adaptive filters. We determined that daily death counts had no DoW effects; tests were twice as likely to be reported on weekdays than weekends with decreasing effect sizes across intervention phases. Cases were also twice as likely to be reported on Tuesdays-Fridays (RR = 1.90-2.69 [95%CI: 1.38-4.08]) in the most stringent phases and half as likely to be reported on Mondays and Tuesdays (RR = 0.51-0.93 [0.44, 0.97]) in less stringent phases compared to Sundays; indicating temporal changes in laboratory testing practices and use of healthcare facilities. Understanding the DoW effects in daily surveillance records is valuable to better anticipate fluctuations in SARS-CoV-2 testing and manage appropriate workflow. We encourage health authorities to establish standardized reporting protocols.

Assessing the Electronic Evidence System Needs of Canadian Public Health Professionals: Cross-sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: True evidence-informed decision-making in public health relies on incorporating evidence from a number of sources in addition to traditional scientific evidence. Lack of access to these types of data as well as ease of use and interpretability of scientific evidence contribute to limited uptake of evidence-informed decision-making in practice. An electronic evidence system that includes multiple sources of evidence and potentially novel computational processing approaches or artificial intelligence holds promise as a solution to overcoming barriers to evidence-informed decision-making in public health. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to understand the needs and preferences for an electronic evidence system among public health professionals in Canada. METHODS: An invitation to participate in an anonymous web-based survey was distributed via listservs of 2 Canadian public health organizations in February 2019. Eligible participants were English- or French-speaking individuals currently working in public health. The survey contained both multiple-choice and open-ended questions about the needs and preferences relevant to an electronic evidence system. Quantitative responses were analyzed to explore differences by public health role. Inductive and deductive analysis methods were used to code and interpret the qualitative data. Ethics review was not required by the host institution. RESULTS: Respondents (N=371) were heterogeneous, spanning organizations, positions, and areas of practice within public health. Nearly all (364/371, 98.1%) respondents indicated that an electronic evidence system would support their work. Respondents had high preferences for local contextual data, research and intervention evidence, and information about human and financial resources. Qualitative analyses identified several concerns, needs, and suggestions for the development of such a system. Concerns ranged from the personal use of such a system to the ability of their organization to use such a system. Recognized needs spanned the different sources of evidence, including local context, research and intervention evidence, and resources and tools. Additional suggestions were identified to improve system usability. CONCLUSIONS: Canadian public health professionals have positive perceptions toward an electronic evidence system that would bring together evidence from the local context, scientific research, and resources. Elements were also identified to increase the usability of an electronic evidence system.

Evaluation of a Parsimonious COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction Model: Heuristic Modeling Approach Using Publicly Available Data Sets.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has changed public health policies and human and community behaviors through lockdowns and mandates. Governments are rapidly evolving policies to increase hospital capacity and supply personal protective equipment and other equipment to mitigate disease spread in affected regions. Current models that predict COVID-19 case counts and spread are complex by nature and offer limited explainability and generalizability. This has highlighted the need for accurate and robust outbreak prediction models that balance model parsimony and performance. OBJECTIVE: We sought to leverage readily accessible data sets extracted from multiple states to train and evaluate a parsimonious predictive model capable of identifying county-level risk of COVID-19 outbreaks on a day-to-day basis. METHODS: Our modeling approach leveraged the following data inputs: COVID-19 case counts per county per day and county populations. We developed an outbreak gold standard across California, Indiana, and Iowa. The model utilized a per capita running 7-day sum of the case counts per county per day and the mean cumulative case count to develop baseline values. The model was trained with data recorded between March 1 and August 31, 2020, and tested on data recorded between September 1 and October 31, 2020. RESULTS: The model reported sensitivities of 81%, 92%, and 90% for California, Indiana, and Iowa, respectively. The precision in each state was above 85% while specificity and accuracy scores were generally >95%. CONCLUSIONS: Our parsimonious model provides a generalizable and simple alternative approach to outbreak prediction. This methodology can be applied to diverse regions to help state officials and hospitals with resource allocation and to guide risk management, community education, and mitigation strategies.

Implementing an Urban Public Health Observatory for (Near) Real-Time Surveillance for the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic is broadly undercutting global health and economies, while disproportionally impacting socially disadvantaged populations. An impactful pandemic surveillance solution must draw from multi-dimensional integration of social determinants of health (SDoH) to contextually inform traditional epidemiological factors. In this article, we describe an Urban Public Health Observatory (UPHO) model which we have put into action in a mid-sized U.S. metropolitan region to provide near real-time analysis and dashboarding of ongoing COVID-19 conditions. Our goal is to illuminate associations between SDoH factors and downstream pandemic health outcomes to inform specific policy decisions and public health planning.

Transparency, trust, and community welfare: towards a precision public health ethics framework for the genomics era.

Infectious disease control is experiencing a paradigm shift, as pathogen sequencing technologies and digital applications are increasingly implemented for control of diseases such as tuberculosis, Ebola, and COVID-19. A new ethical framework should be a critical part of this emerging paradigm to ensure that the benefit of precision public health interventions based on advances in genomics research is not outweighed by the risks they pose to individuals, families, and vulnerable segments of the population. We suggest that the ethical framework guiding practice in this domain combines standard precepts from public health ethics with emerging ethics principles from precision medicine.

Real-Time Forecasting of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Chinese Provinces: Machine Learning Approach Using Novel Digital Data and Estimates From Mechanistic Models.

BACKGROUND: The inherent difficulty of identifying and monitoring emerging outbreaks caused by novel pathogens can lead to their rapid spread; and if left unchecked, they may become major public health threats to the planet. The ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, which has infected over 2,300,000 individuals and caused over 150,000 deaths, is an example of one of these catastrophic events. OBJECTIVE: We present a timely and novel methodology that combines disease estimates from mechanistic models and digital traces, via interpretable machine learning methodologies, to reliably forecast COVID-19 activity in Chinese provinces in real time. METHODS: Our method uses the following as inputs: (a) official health reports, (b) COVID-19-related internet search activity, (c) news media activity, and (d) daily forecasts of COVID-19 activity from a metapopulation mechanistic model. Our machine learning methodology uses a clustering technique that enables the exploitation of geospatial synchronicities of COVID-19 activity across Chinese provinces and a data augmentation technique to deal with the small number of historical disease observations characteristic of emerging outbreaks. RESULTS: Our model is able to produce stable and accurate forecasts 2 days ahead of the current time and outperforms a collection of baseline models in 27 out of 32 Chinese provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Our methodology could be easily extended to other geographies currently affected by COVID-19 to aid decision makers with monitoring and possibly prevention.

The Role of Environmental Factors on Transmission Rates of the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Initial Assessment in Two Spatial Scales.

A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and has caused over 240,000 cases of COVID-19 worldwide as of March 19, 2020. Previous studies have supported an epidemiological hypothesis that cold and dry environments facilitate the survival and spread of droplet-mediated viral diseases, and warm and humid environments see attenuated viral transmission (e.g., influenza). However, the role of temperature and humidity in transmission of COVID-19 has not yet been established. Here, we examine the spatial variability of the basic reproductive numbers of COVID-19 across provinces and cities in China and show that environmental variables alone cannot explain this variability. Our findings suggest that changes in weather alone (i.e., increase of temperature and humidity as spring and summer months arrive in the Northern Hemisphere) will not necessarily lead to declines in case count without the implementation of extensive public health interventions.

Containing COVID-19 Among 627,386 Persons in Contact With the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship Passengers Who Disembarked in Taiwan: Big Data Analytics.

BACKGROUND: Low infection and case-fatality rates have been thus far observed in Taiwan. One of the reasons for this major success is better use of big data analytics in efficient contact tracing and management and surveillance of those who require quarantine and isolation. OBJECTIVE: We present here a unique application of big data analytics among Taiwanese people who had contact with more than 3000 passengers that disembarked at Keelung harbor in Taiwan for a 1-day tour on January 31, 2020, 5 days before the outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the Diamond Princess cruise ship on February 5, 2020, after an index case was identified on January 20, 2020. METHODS: The smart contact tracing-based mobile sensor data, cross-validated by other big sensor surveillance data, were analyzed by the mobile geopositioning method and rapid analysis to identify 627,386 potential contact-persons. Information on self-monitoring and self-quarantine was provided via SMS, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) tests were offered for symptomatic contacts. National Health Insurance claims big data were linked, to follow-up on the outcome related to COVID-19 among those who were hospitalized due to pneumonia and advised to undergo screening for SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: As of February 29, a total of 67 contacts who were tested by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction were all negative and no confirmed COVID-19 cases were found. Less cases of respiratory syndrome and pneumonia were found after the follow-up of the contact population compared with the general population until March 10, 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Big data analytics with smart contact tracing, automated alert messaging for self-restriction, and follow-up of the outcome related to COVID-19 using health insurance data could curtail the resources required for conventional epidemiological contact tracing.